Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Winter Quarter 2007

ATMS 585A / ENVIR 585A / ESS 585A / SMA 585A

Amy Snover & Nathan Mantua

Tuesdays and Thursdays, 9:30-11:20
Mary Gates Hall Room 258

Instructors

Dr. Amy Snover
aksnover@u.washington.edu
KING 216
206-221-2997

Dr. Nathan Mantua
nmantua@u.washington.edu
KING 216
206-616-5347

Office Hours

By appointment.

Our offices are on the second floor of the King Building, which is off campus at 4909 25th Avenue NE, right on the bike trail down by the U-Village. See http://www.cses.washington.edu/about/directions.shtml for a map.

Introduction

This interdisciplinary course focuses on determining cases in which an understanding of the patterns and predictability of Pacific Northwest climate variations could be used to improve regional natural resource management. Students will develop an understanding of the causes and consequences of natural variations in regional climate (driven by such large-scale climate oscillations as El Niño/La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and projected trends resulting from global warming. We will study the importance of climate fluctuations for the region’s natural resources as well as past societal reactions to climate forecasts, events and regional impacts. Focusing on PNW water, fish, forest, and coastal resources, we will examine the natural, economic, and institutional contexts in which regional resource management decisions are made. The ultimate objective of the course is to identify real-world opportunities where existing information about natural climate variability and human-caused global warming could improve regional resource management.

The following core questions will guide our work throughout the quarter:

• What is the sensitivity of PNW natural resources to climate variability and change?
• What is the adaptability of PNW natural resources to climate variability and change?
  • What are the current challenges facing natural resource management?
  • Where might climate information improve natural resource management and planning?
  • What are the barriers to using climate information in management and planning and how might they be overcome? We will consider barriers stemming from policies, scientific understanding of underlying processes, and/or inherent properties of the system.
• What is the vulnerability of PNW natural resources to climate variability and change?

Course Goals

In this course, students will:

• Understand the multi-faceted context surrounding regional resource management decisions
• Examine resource management practices from a "climate perspective"
• Identify the causes of societal vulnerability and sensitivity to climate variations
• Suggest strategies for increasing societal resilience to climate variations
• Work across traditional disciplinary boundaries in order to tackle current real-world environmental policy/management issues.

Course Objectives

As a result of this course, students will be able to:

• Identify and diagram (using the Kaje system) the impacts of ENSO, PDO, and climate change on PNW climate, water resources, forests, fish, coasts, and associated human systems and characterize the associated uncertainties.
• Locate up-to-date information on climate forecasts, resource forecasts, climate change projections, and climate change impacts.
• Recognize trade-offs inherent in natural resource management, especially concerning the impacts of climate variability and change.
• Identify the steps necessary for characterizing the decision making environment around a natural resource issue.
• Propose an avenue for increasing the use of climate-related information in planning and/or management (generally, and in a specific context) that recognizes and accounts for current understanding of the decision making framework, as well as the uncertainties associated with the climate information.
• Demonstrate the ability to communicate complex scientific information, without compromising accuracy, to (a) scientists in other disciplines and (b) lay people.
• Use the Kaje system to create conceptual maps of complex topics.

Course Format

Each week, class time will be devoted to lectures by the instructors and guests and discussion and in-class activities. Outside readings will provide the necessary background to understand these lectures and participate in these discussions; this understanding will be tested by weekly assignments. The first 2 1/2 weeks of the course are devoted to an introduction to the science of PNW climate variability and climate change and discussion of the uncertainty and applicability of this type of information. For each natural resource (water, forests, salmon, coasts), we will spend one day reviewing the specific pathways by which climate fluctuations manifest as impacts on the resource and one day examining the implications of this climate sensitivity for management of that resource. Students will work in interdisciplinary teams to propose an application of climate science information to a real-world natural resource management problem in the cumulative white paper assignment.

Readings

The course readings consist of the Climate Impacts Group’s (CIG’s) draft book manuscript, Rhythms of Change: Climate impacts on the Pacific Northwest [Snover, A. K., E. L. Miles, and The Climate Impacts Group. 2007. Rhythms of Change: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, in review] and selected articles. Most of the readings are available via the course website.

Note on Reading in an Interdisciplinary Course

The assigned readings are complex and will cover many subjects, of which you will probably only be familiar with a few. Part of what you’ll learn in this class will be how to read journal articles and reports in fields other than your own, gleaning both the big picture and some supporting details. The key to avoiding getting bogged down by the reading is to focus on the big picture and on understanding some of the key details supporting the major arguments. Essay assignments and class discussions will require demonstrating this level of understanding rather than rehashing the details of each reading. The readings listed as “background” were chosen to provide additional information for those new to the topic. We encourage you to utilize your fellow classmates, in addition to the instructors, as resources for further clarification of or insight into issues outside of your field.

Assignments & Expectations

In addition to brief lectures by the instructors and guest lecturers, part of almost every class meeting is spent in discussion. You will be evaluated on your preparation for these discussions, on five short review assignments, on the weekly essays you write in response to the readings, and on the term “white paper” project.

• Preparation & participation: Students are expected to be active, thoughtful and prepared participants in discussion every day of class. The assigned readings are to be completed prior to each class meeting, as they provide the basis for in-class discussions and activities. Because the topics build on each other, regular attendance is essential for informed discussion. We will ask you to provide an evaluation of your own level of participation in class part way through the quarter. Participation expectations are described here.
• Review assignments: There will be five brief review assignments throughout the quarter. One on accessing information about climate variability and climate forecasts via the internet and four ("Kaje") diagrams of climate impacts pathways on each of the four resource sectors.
• Essays: Five short (1-2 pg) essays based on the assigned readings will be due at the beginning of class in weeks 4-8. Each essay question will be posted on the course website the week before it is due. We would like you to go beyond the readings in your writing (but to use them as your foundation); to present a clear, focused, well-developed and substantiated argument; to write clearly and carefully; and to get the facts right. Length = two pages maximum!
• White paper: Each student will work with a group to write a 10-15 page policy-oriented “white paper” on the application of climate information to the resource issue of their choice. More about the white paper assignment can be found here.
• There are no exams.

Grading

We will grade each of you on the quality of your work; we will not grade on a curve. The average grade over the previous two years was ~3.5.

Because the assignments are essential for helping you keep up with the topics, and because the essays will often form the basis of class discussions, we hope you will make every effort to turn all assignments in on time. Late assignments (without prior approval) will have a 10% penalty subtracted for each day late.