Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 1: The Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Pacific Northwest, by A. K. Snover and E. L. Miles.

Harden, B. and J. Eilperin, 2006. "On the Move to Outrun Climate Change: Self-preservation forcing wild species, businesses, planning officials to act." The Washington Post Sunday, 26 November: A03.

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 4: The Underlying Rhythms: Patterns of Pacific Northwest Climate Variability, by N. J. Mantua, P.W. Mote.

Kaje, J. 1999. “Kaje System: A conceptual modeling tool for interdisciplinary research.”

Background material (optional):

Zebiak, S. 1999. El Niño and the science of climate prediction. Consequences 5(2).

Lippsett, L. 2000. Beyond El Niño. Scientific American 11(1):77-83.

Mantua, N. J., and S. R. Hare. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 58(1):35-44.

Online climate information: Real Climate: Climate science from climate scientists.

Sarachik, E. 1999. The Application of Climate Information. Consequences 5(2).

National Research Council. 1999. Summary, pages 1-6 in Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.

Hickson, D. J. 1987. Decision-making at the top of organizations. Annual Reviews of Sociology 13:165-192.

Jacobs, K. 2002. Connecting Science, Policy, and Decision-making: A handbook for researchers and science agencies. Silver Spring, Maryland, NOAA Office of Global Programs: 25. Will be handed out in class.

Background material (optional):

Changnon, S. 1999. Impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño generated weather in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(9): 1819-1827.

Changnon, S. A. and D. R. Vonnahme. 2003. Impact of Spring 2003 drought forecasts on midwestern water management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 129(1): 18-25.

Changnon, S. A. and D. Changnon. 2005. Lessons from the unusual impacts of an abnormal winter in the USA. Meteorological Applications 12:187-191.

Glantz, M. H. 1982. Consequences and responsibilities in drought forecasting: The case of Yakima, 1977. Water Resources Research 18(1):3-13.

Rogers, E. M. 2004. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: The Free Press.

Lewis, H. W. 1998. Why Flip a Coin? The Art and Science of Good Decisions. John Wiley & Sons.

Kahneman, D. [recent Nobel prize winner] and A. Tversky. 1982. The psychology of preferences. Scientific American January:136-142.

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction.

Animated movie of recent tropical ocean conditions on the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center website.

Readings:

Karl, T. R. and K. E. Trenberth. 2003. Modern Global Climate Change. Science 302(5651): 1719-1723.

Pages 5-13 and 42 in: Casola, J. H., J. E. Kay, A. K. Snover, R. A. Norheim, L. C. Whitely Binder and the Climate Impacts Group. 2005. Climate Impacts on Washington’s Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the
Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 5: A new tune: Possible future climate, by P. Mote and E. Salathe.

Background material (optional):

Regional climate trends: Mote, P. W. 2003. Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century. Northwest Science 77(4): 271-282.

Global climate change: IPCC Working Group I. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Summary for Policymakers). Working Group I contribution to the Third Assessment Report. For more information, you can also check out the Technical Summary (and remaining chapters).

Emission scenarios: Nakicenovic, N. et al. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Or download the Summary for Policymakers.

Regional climate change scenarios: Mote, P. M., E. Salathé and C. Peacock. 2005b. Scenarios of future climate for the Pacific Northwest, Report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for
Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the
Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Online climate information: Real Climate: Climate science from climate scientists.

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 2: Regional Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment, by A. K. Snover and E. L. Miles.

Jacobs, K. 2002. Connecting Science, Policy, and Decision-making: A handbook for researchers and science agencies. Silver Spring, Maryland, NOAA Office of Global Programs: 25. Will be handed out in class.

Readings:

Service, R. F. 2004. As the West goes dry. Science 303(5661):1124-1127.

Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, A. Hamlet, B. Callahan, and D. Fluharty. 2000. Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36(2):399-420.

Section 10.4.1 (CASE STUDY: The Value of Long-Lead Streamflow Forecasts for Non-Firm Hydropower Production in the Columbia River Basin) in Rhythms of Change, Chapter 10: Using Climate Forecasts in Natural Resource Management, by D. Huppert, J. Kaje, A. F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, D. Fluharty, Z. Johnson, N. Mantua, E. L. Miles, and A. K. Snover.

Pages 14-32 in: Casola, J. H., J. E. Kay, A. K. Snover, R. A. Norheim, L. C. Whitely Binder and the Climate Impacts Group. 2005. Climate Impacts on Washington’s Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the
Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Background material (optional):

Mote, P. W., A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in Western North America, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(1):39-49.

Barnett, T. P., J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438:303-309.

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 6: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources, by A. F. Hamlet, P. Mote, A. K. Snover.

Hamlet, A. F. and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1999. Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 125(6):333-341. This paper describes the streamflow forecasting technique applied in RoC Chapter 10.

Palmer, R. N. and M. Hahn (2003). The potential impacts of climate change on Portland, Oregon's water supply. Submitted to ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management.

Leagues of Women Voters of Seattle, Lake Washington East and King County South. 1995. Washington State Water Rights Study Update. November.

Good sites for Washington state water law information:

• http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/plan/munihome.html
• http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/rights/wrs-home.html
• http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/rules/rul-home.html

Readings:

Payne, J. T., A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, R.N. Palmer, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin. Climatic Change 62(1-3):233-256.

Appendix N: Effects of Climate Change on the Hydroelectric System, in: Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2005. The Fifth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan. Document 2005-7. May.

Background material (optional):

Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE), Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). 2001. The Columbia River System: The Inside Story, Second Edition. Updated version of report DOE/BP-1689 published for the Columbia River System Review by the USACOE and the USBR, September. This report has good background material on the treaties underlying operation of the Columbia River and the initial operating objectives of the system.

National Research Council. 2004. Managing the Columbia River: Instream Flows, Water Withdrawals, and Salmon Survival. National Academies Press.

Snover, A. K., A. F. Hamlet, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2003. Climate change scenarios for water planning studies: Pilot applications in the Pacific Northwest. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84(11):1513-1518.

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 7: PNW salmon and climate, by N. J. Mantua, R. C. Francis, and P. W. Mote.

Sections 10.3 (Measuring the Economic Value of Climate Forecasts) and 10.4.2 (CASE STUDY: Assessing the Value of Improved Ocean Recruitment Forecasts to the Washington Coastal Coho Salmon Fishery) in Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 10: Using Climate Forecasts in Natural Resource Management, by D. Huppert, J. Kaje, A. F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, D. Fluharty, Z. Johnson, N. Mantua, E. L. Miles, and A. K. Snover.

Ruckelshaus, M., N. Mantua, and R. Francis. 2004. "Wisely investing in stocks of Pacific Northwest salmon". Seattle Times. March 26.

Pages 35-38 in: Casola, J. H., J. E. Kay, A. K. Snover, R. A. Norheim, L. C. Whitely Binder and the Climate Impacts Group. 2005. Climate Impacts on Washington’s Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the
Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Background material (optional):

Mantua, N. J. and P. W. Mote. 2002. Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32: 263-272.

Readings:

Battin, J., M.W. Wiley, M. H. Ruckelshaus, R. N. Palmer, E. Korb, K. K. Bartz, H. Imaki. 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (in review).

Mantua, N. J. and R. C. Francis. (In press). Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: Finding our way through the entangled bank. To appear in E.E. Knudsen and D. MacDonald (eds), Fish in our Future? Perspectives on Fisheries Sustainability. A special publication of the American Fisheries Society.

Background material (optional):

Ruckelshaus, M. H., P. Levin, J. B. Johnson, and P. M. Kareiva. 2002. The Pacific salmon wars: What science brings to the challenge of recovering species. Annual Review of Ecological Systems 33: 665-706.

Levin, S. A. 1993. Forum: Science and sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4).

Ludwig, D., R. Hilborn, and C. Walters. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: Lessons from history. Ecological Applications 3(4): 547-549.

Holling, C. S. 1993. Investing in research for sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4): 552-555.

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 9: Climate Impacts on PNW coasts, by D. J. Canning, P. W. Mote, Z. Johnson, J. C. Field, J. Newton, and M. J. Hershman.

The Heinz Center. 2000. Evaluation of Erosion Hazards: Summary. Prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency by The H. John Heinz III Center, Washington, D.C.

Readings:

Dean, C. 2006. "Next Victim of Warming: The Beaches", The New York Times June 20.

Garreau, J. 2006. "A Dream Blown Away: Climate change already has a chilling effect on where Americans can build their homes", The Washington Post December 2:C01.

Pages 1308-1333 and 1387-1395 in: Titus, J. G. 1998. Rising seas, coastal erosion, and the takings clause: How to save wetlands and beaches without hurting property owners. Maryland Law Review 57(4): 1279-1399. [This paper has a national scope. Students especially interested in the public
trust doctrine as it is defined by Washington State case law can find
more information in the background material below.]

Background material (optional):

Ralph W. Johnson, et al. 1992. The Public Trust Doctrine and Coastal Zone Management in Washington State. Washington Law Review 67(3):521-597.

Washington State Department of Ecology, 1992. Symposium on Washington State Public Trust Doctrine.

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 8: Climate Impacts on PNW forest ecosystems, by W. S. Keeton, J. F. Franklin, and P. W. Mote.

Peterson, D.L. 1994. Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America, pp. 234-243. In M. Beniston (ed.), Mountain Environments in Changing Climates.

McKenzie, D., Z. M. Gedalof, D. L. Peterson, and P. W. Mote. 2004. Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18(4):890-902.

Nijhuis, M. 2004. "Global warming's unlikely harbingers". High Country News 36(13): July 19.

Running, S. W. 2006. Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires? Science 313(5789):927.

Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, T. W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313(5789):940-943.

Background material (optional):

Whitlock, C. 1992. Vegetational and climatic history of the Pacific Northwest during the last 20,000 years: Implications for understanding present-day biodiversity. The Northwest Environmental Journal 8:5-28. This paper examines ecological, climatological and geological processes of the past to derive an understanding of present patterns of biodiversity and the implications of future climate change for the PNW.

Boisvenue, C. and S. W. Running. 2006. Impacts of climate change on natural forest producitivity - evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology 12:862-882.

Kirschbaum, M. U. F. and A. Fischlin. 1996. Climate Change Impacts on Forests. Chapter 1 in Part II of Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss, eds. New York, New York, Cambridge University Press.

Readings:

Jahns, P. 2004. Assessment of climate change for Colville, Okanogan, and Wenatchee Forest Plan Revisions. Draft US Forest Service planning document.

Final Planning Rule: National Forest System Land Management. 2005. Federal Register 70(3):1023-1061.

Mehaffey, K. C. 2006. "Accounting for Climate Change: NCW forests are on the leading edge of planning to cope with the realities of global warming." The Wenatchee World October 1:A01.

Background material (optional):

Bachelet, D., R. P. Neilson, T. Hickler, R. J. Drapek, et al. 2003. Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 12(2): 1045-1066.

Henderson, J .A. 2001. The PNV model: a gradient model for predicting environmental variables and units of potential natural vegetation across a landscape. Unpublished report. On file with: USDA Forest Service, Mt. Baker Snoqualmie National Forest, 21905 64 th Ave. West., Mountlake Terrace, WA. 88043.

Readings:

Walker, B., S. Carpenter, et al. 2002. Resilience management in social-ecological systems: A working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 14.

Pollan, M. 1991. The Idea of a Garden. In Second Nature: A Gardener's Education, pp. 209-238. New York, NY, Atlantic Monthly Press: 258.

Holling, C. S. 1993. Investing in research for sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4): 552-555. (Refers to Levin (1993) and Ludwig et al. (1993), below.)

Background material (optional):

Levin, S. A. 1993. Forum: Science and sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4).

Ludwig, D., R. Hilborn, and C. Walters. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: Lessons from history. Ecological Applications 3(4): 547-549.

Hansen, L. J., J. L. Biringer, and J. R. Hoffman (eds.) 2003. Buying Time: A user's manual for building resistance and resilience to climate change in natural systems. World Wildlife Federation Climate Change Program.

Readings:

Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, L. C. Whitely Binder, E. Sarachik, P. W. Mote, and N. J. Mantua. 2006. An approach to designing a National Climate Service. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 103(52):19616–19623.

Kates, R. W. et al. 2001. Sustainability Science. Science 292:641-642.

Schellnhuber, H. J. 1999. 'Earth system' analysis and the second Copernican revolution. Nature 402(Suppl):C19-C23.

Readings:

TBA

Readings:

World Health Organization, 2003. Climate Change and Human Health - Risks and Responses (Summary). World Health Organization: Geneva.

Patz, J. A., D. Campbell-Lendrum, T. Holloway, and J. A. Foley. 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438:310-317.

Patz, J. A., In press. Climate Change, Chapter 11 in .... Will be distributed via email.

Background material (optional):

The full WHO report is available here.