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Integrated Assessment
Key Findings
On This Page
In its research on the integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) has:
Compared the Impacts of Climate Variability to Climate Change
- The CIG has developed quantitative comparisons of the observed impacts of past climate variability and the
projected impacts of future climate change.
- Figure 1 shows the influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on climate, water resources, and salmon in the PNW. ( Mote et al. 2003)
- Figure 2 compares the observed 20th century (1925-1995) impacts of PDO with the projected impacts of climate change in the 2040s on the natural resources of the PNW.
- Figures 3-5 summarize the consequences of climate change for the PNW.
Developed and Documented New Methods of Integrated Assessment
- CIG researchers have developed methods specifically for:
- integrating the natural and social sciences for regional assessment of climate impacts (Snover et al. 2002; Snover and Miles, in review) (see also presentations on “Integrating Natural and Social Sciences Research” and “Climate Impacts Science in the Climate Impacts Group”), and
- engaging stakeholders in planning for climate variability and change (Gamble et al. 2003; Snover and Miles, in review; Snover et al., 2003).
Earned National Recognition for Integrated Assessment Research
- CIG researchers won the Boggess Award for best paper in the Journal of the American Water Resources Association (2000) for an integrated analysis of the impacts of climate variability and change on Columbia basin water resources (Miles et al. 2000).
Convened International Workshops on Regional Integrated Assessment
- CIG convened the Second International Workshop on Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts in Grainau, Germany in July 2004. This five day workshop brought together practitioners and theorists of regional assessment to discuss methods and approaches, to share successes and failures, and to discuss the blending of academic research with policy influence. Participants came from 19 countries, including 9 developing countries. The CIG also convened the first workshop on regional integrated assessment of climate impacts in September 2002.
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Figure 1 The influence of the cool, neutral, and warm phases (left to right) of ENSO (left column) and PDO (right column) on climate, water resources, and salmon in the PNW. Range = whiskers, mean = horizontal line, top/bottom of box = 75th/25th percentiles. (from Mote et al. 2003)
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Figure 2 Comparing impacts of the PDO and climate change on PNW natural resources. This figure compares observed 20th century (1925-1995) impacts of the PDO and projected impacts of climate change in the 2040s on PNW temperature (averaged over the PNW for October-March); total annual precipitation (averaged over the PNW); snow depth (January 15 to April 15 average at Snoqualmie Pass, Washington); streamflow (for the Columbia River at the Dalles, corrected for the effects of dams); annual catch of Washington coho salmon; and areas burned by forest fires in Washington and Oregon. The results are expressed as a percentage of the average value with the exception of temperature, shown as degrees Celsius. Future changes in salmon catch and forest fires are less certain than other resource sectors.
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Figure 3 The consequences of climate change for the PNW. The impacts are prioritized by magnitude of cumulative effects across the region and associated degree of confidence.
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Figure 4 The consequences of climate change for the PNW. The impacts are prioritized by magnitude of cumulative effects across the region and associated degree of confidence.
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Figure 5 The consequences of climate change for the PNW. The impacts are prioritized by magnitude of cumulative effects across the region and associated degree of confidence.
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