Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications
Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J.S. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielsen, C.D. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, and T. Doyle. 2005. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications. Ecological Complexity 2:357–394.
Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change.
UW Climate Impacts Group