Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State
Hamlet, A.F., S-Y. Lee, K.E.B. Mickelson, and M.M. Elsner. 2009. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. Chapter 4 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
Climate strongly affects energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Washington State (WA). We evaluate potential changes in the seasonality and annual amount of PNW hydropower production and changes in energy demand in a warming climate by linking simulated streamflow scenarios produced by a hydrology model to a simulation model of the Columbia River hydro system. Energy demand, and potential changes therein, are assessed estimates of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) for both the 20th Century climate and projections of climate in three future periods (2010-2039, 2030-2059, and 2070-2099) and two emissions scenarios (IPCC A1B and B1). The gridded HDD and CDD values are then combined with population projections to create energy demand indices that respond both to climate, future population, and changes in air conditioning market penetration.
UW Climate Impacts Group