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Fontaine, M., and A.C. Steinemann. (In press). Assessing vulnerability to natural hazards: An impact-based method and application to drought in Washington State. To appear in Natural Hazards Review.

Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Littell. (In press). Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America. To appear in A. Bytnerowicz, M. Arbaugh, C. Anderson, and A. Riebau (eds.), Forest Fires and Air Pollution Issues. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Science, Ltd.

Modeling understory vegetation and its response to fire

McKenzie, D., C.L. Raymond, and S.C. Cushman. (In press). Modeling understory vegetation and its response to fire. To appear in J. Millspaugh and F.R. Thompson III, Models for Planning Wildlife Conservation in Large Landscapes.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Moore, S.K., V.L. Trainer, N.J. Mantua, D. Parker, E.A. Laws, L.C. Backer, and L.E. Fleming. (In press). Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health. To appear in Environmental Health.

Adapting decision making to uncertainty when addressing sea level rise response in Puget Sound

Petersen, A. (Sascha), D.J. Canning, T.M. Leschine, and E.L. Miles. (In press). Adapting decision making to uncertainty when addressing sea level rise response in Puget Sound. To appear in Proceedings of the 15th Biennial Coastal Zone Conference, July 22-26, 2007, Portland, Oregon. Charleston, SC: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

A high-resolution climate model for the United States Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change

Salathé, E.P., R. Steed, C.F. Mass, and P. Zahn. (In press). A high-resolution climate model for the United States Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change. To appear in Journal of Climate.

A transactions cost approach to the theoretical foundations of water markets

Slaughter, R. (In press). A transactions cost approach to the theoretical foundations of water markets. To appear in Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

Mandates vs. markets: Addressing over-allocation of Pacific Northwest river basins

Slaughter, R., A.F. Hamlet, D. Huppert, J. Hamilton, and P.W. Mote. (In press). Mandates vs. markets: Addressing over-allocation of Pacific Northwest river basins. To appear in Water Policy.

Simulation of Subantartic mode and Antarctic intermediate waters in climate models

Sloyan, B.M., and I.V. Kamenkovich. (In press). Simulation of Subantartic mode and Antarctic intermediate waters in climate models. To appear in Journal of Climate.

Evaluation of precipitation products for global hydrological prediction

Voisin, N., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. (In press). Evaluation of precipitation products for global hydrological prediction. To appear in Journal of Hydrometeorology.

The modulated annual cycle - an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies

Wu, Z., E.K. Schneider, B.P. Kirtman, E. Sarachik, B. Huang, and C.J. Tucker. (In press). The modulated annual cycle - an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies. To appear in Climate Dynamics.

In review

Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States

Bonfils, C., D.W. Pierce, B.D. Santer, H. Hidalgo, G. Bala, T. Das, T. Barnett, C. Doutriaux, A.W. Wood, A, Mirin, and T. Nazawa. (In review). Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

Climate impacts on the coasts of the Pacific Northwest

Canning, D.J., and P.W. Mote. (In review). Climate impacts on the coasts of the Pacific Northwest. Chapter 9 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Assessing the impacts of global warming on Pacific Northwest snowpack

Casola, J.H., L. Cuo, B. Livney, D.P. Lettenmaier, P.W. Mote, and J.M. Wallace. (In review). Assessing the impacts of global warming on Pacific Northwest snowpack. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

Global change impacts on future regional air quality in the United States

Chen, J., J. Avise, B. Lamb, E.P. Salathé, C.F. Mass, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, J-F. Lamarque, S. O'Neill, D. McKenzie, and N. Larkin. (In review). Global change impacts on future regional air quality in the United States. Submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics.

Humans in the Pacific Northwest

Fluharty, D.L. (In review). Humans in the Pacific Northwest. Chapter 3 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Forced variability of North Atlantic deep water production in an ocean GCM

Goodman, P.J., and E. Sarachik. (In review). Forced variability of North Atlantic deep water production in an ocean GCM. Submitted to the Journal of Marine Research.

Climate, water cycles, and water resources management in the Pacific Northwest

Hamlet, A.F., P.W. Mote, A.K. Snover, and E.L. Miles. (In review). Climate, water cycles, and water resources management in the Pacific Northwest. Chapter 6 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Effects of changing 20th century precipitation variability on annual streamflow and regional hydropower resources in the Western U.S.

Hamlet, A.F., A.L. Westerling, T.P. Barnett, and D.P. Lettenmaier. (In review). Effects of changing 20th century precipitation variability on annual streamflow and regional hydropower resources in the Western U.S..

Using climate forecasts in natural resource management

Huppert, D., J.H. Kaje, A.F. Hamlet, E.L. Miles, and A.K. Snover. (In review). Using climate forecasts in natural resource management. Chapter 10 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Climate variability, climate change, and forest ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest

Keeton, W.S., J.F. Franklin, and P.W. Mote. (In review). Climate variability, climate change, and forest ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. Chapter 8 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production

Mantua, N.J. (In review). Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production. In C.C. Krueger and C.E. Zimmerman (eds.), Sustainability of the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim Salmon Fisheries, American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland.

Climate and the Pacific Northwest salmon crisis: A case of discordant harmony

Mantua, N.J., and R.C. Francis. (In review). Climate and the Pacific Northwest salmon crisis: A case of discordant harmony. Chapter 7 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

The underlying rhythms: Characteristics of Pacific Northwest climate

Mantua, N.J., and P.W. Mote. (In review). The underlying rhythms: Characteristics of Pacific Northwest climate. Chapter 4 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America

Maurer, E.P., J.C. Adam, and A.W. Wood. (In review). Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America. Submitted to Hydrological Sciences Journal.

The integrated assessment: The sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability of the Pacific Northwest to climate variability and change

Miles, E.L., and A.K. Snover. (In review). The integrated assessment: The sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability of the Pacific Northwest to climate variability and change. Chapter 11 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Long-term measurements of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish. Part I: Species and site selection for trend analysis

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, V.L. Trainer, and B.M. Hickey. (In review). Long-term measurements of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish. Part I: Species and site selection for trend analysis. Submitted to Harmful Algae.

Long-term measurements of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish. Part II: The influence of climate and capacity for prediction

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, V.L. Trainer, and B.M. Hickey. (In review). Long-term measurements of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish. Part II: The influence of climate and capacity for prediction. Submitted to Harmful Algae.

Possible future climate

Mote, P.W. (In review). Possible future climate. Chapter 5 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects

Pierce, D.W., T. Barnett, H. Hidalgo, T. Das, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, G. Bala, M. Dettinger, D. Cayan, A, Mirin, A.W. Wood, and T. Nazawa. (In review). Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

Holocene fire history in the North Cascade Range, Washington

Prichard, S.J., Z.M. Gedalof, and D.L. Peterson. (In review). Holocene fire history in the North Cascade Range, Washington. Submitted to The Holocene.

Water markets at work: An Idaho model

Reading, D.C. (In review). Water markets at work: An Idaho model. Submitted to International Journal of Water Resources Development.

System optimization using streamflow forecasts during droughts

Ryu, J.H., and R.N. Palmer. (In review). System optimization using streamflow forecasts during droughts. Submitted to Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management.

How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting?

Shi, X., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. (In review). How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting?. Submitted to Journal of Hydrometeorology.

After Kyoto: Which way forward?

Slaughter, R. (In review). After Kyoto: Which way forward?. Submitted to Foreign Policy.

Choices and change

Snover, A.K., and N.J. Mantua. (In review). Choices and change. Chapter 1 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Regional integrated climate impacts assessment

Snover, A.K., and E.L. Miles. (In review). Regional integrated climate impacts assessment. Chapter 2 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Rhythms of Change: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Snover, A.K., E.L. Miles, and Climate Impacts Group. (In review). Rhythms of Change: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Real-time precipitation estimation based on index station percentiles

Tang, Q., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. (In review). Real-time precipitation estimation based on index station percentiles. Submitted to Journal of Hydrometeorology.

2008

Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations to specific global changes

Avise, J., J. Chen, B. Lamb, C. Wiedinmyer, A. Guenther, E.P. Salathé, and C.F. Mass. 2008. Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations to specific global changes. Submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics.

Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States

Barnett, T., D.W. Pierce, H. Hidalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. Nazawa, A, Mirin, D. Cayan, and M. Dettinger. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science Science Express Reports 10.1126/science.1152538.

The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity

Climate Change Science Program 2008. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. P. Backlund, A. Janetos, D. Schimel, J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, L. Hahn, C. Izaurralde, B.A. Kimball, T. Mader, J. Morgan, D. Ort, W. Polley, A. Thomson, D. Wolfe, M. Ryan, S. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L. Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman, G. Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson, W. Schlesinger, D. Lettenmaier, D. Major, L. Poff, S. Running, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, B.P. Kelly, L Meyerson, B. Peterson, R. Shaw. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC., USA, 362 pp.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

Crozier, L.G., A.P. Hendry, P.W. Lawson, T.P. Quinn, N.J. Mantua, J. Battin, R.G. Shaw, and R.B. Huey. 2008. Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon. Evolutionary Applications2: 252–270, doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00033.x.

Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon

Crozier, L.G., R.W. Zabel, and A.F. Hamlet. 2008. Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Global Change Biology 14(2): 236–249, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01497.x.

Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651-1900)

Heyerdahl, E.K., D. McKenzie, L. Daniels, A.E. Hessl, J.S. Littell, and N.J. Mantua. 2008. Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651-1900). International Journal of Wildland Fire 17:40-49.

National forests

Joyce, L.A., G.M. Blate, J.S. Littell, S.G. McNulty, C.I. Millar, S.C. Moser, and R.P. Neilson. 2008. National forests. Chapter 3 in S.H. Julius, J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, B.Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (Authors), Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 3-1 to 3-127.

Glestcherschwund am Kilimanjaro

Kaser, G., and P.W. Mote. 2008. Glestcherschwund am Kilimanjaro. Spektrum der Wissenschaft, Januar 2008, 62-69.

Douglas-fir growth-climate relationships along biophysical gradients in mountain protected areas of the northwestern U.S.

Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, and M. Tjoelker. 2008. Douglas-fir growth-climate relationships along biophysical gradients in mountain protected areas of the northwestern U.S.. Ecological Monographs 78(3): 349–368.

Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?

Milly, P.C.D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R.M. Hirsch, Z.W. Kundzewicz, D.P. Lettenmaier, and R.J. Stouffer. 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?. Science 319 (5863): 573-574, DOI: 10.1126/science.1151915.

Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.P. Kellogg, and J.A. Newton. 2008. Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales. Limnology and Oceanography 53(5): 1746-1758.

Sensitivity of Northwest ski areas to warming

Mote, P.W., J. Casson, A.F. Hamlet, and D.C. Reading. 2008. Sensitivity of Northwest ski areas to warming. pp 63-67, in B. McGurk (ed.), Proceedings of the 75th Western Snow Conference, April 16-19, 2007, Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W., M. Clark, and A.F. Hamlet. 2008. Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. In F. Wagner (ed.), Proceedings of the AAAS Pacific Division Annual Meeting.

Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and E.P. Salathé. 2008. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12: 193-206.

Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Washington State

Mote, P.W., A. (Sascha) Petersen, S. Reeder, H. Shipman, and L.C. Whitely Binder. 2008. Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Washington State. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington and the Washington Department of Ecology, Lacey, Washington.

Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, V. Dulière, and E. Jump. 2008. Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle.

Research and Networks for Decision Support in the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program

National Research Council 2008. Research and Networks for Decision Support in the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program. Panel on Design Issues for the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program, H.M. Ingram and P.C. Stern (eds.), Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. 84 pp.

Wild and scenic rivers

Palmer, M.A., D.P. Lettenmaier, N.L. Poff, S. Postel, B. Richter, and R. Warner. 2008. Wild and scenic rivers. Chapter 6 in S.H. Julius, J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, B.Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (Authors), Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 6-1 to 6-73.

Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought

Shukla, S., and A.W. Wood. 2008. Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02405, doi:10.1029/2007GL032487.

The University of Washington Surface Water Monitor: An experimental platform for national hydrologic assessment and prediction.

Wood, A.W. 2008. The University of Washington Surface Water Monitor: An experimental platform for national hydrologic assessment and prediction.. In Proceedings of the AMS 22nd Conference on Hydrology, New Orleans, LA, January 20-24, 2008.

Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread

Wood, A.W., and J.C. Schaake. 2008. Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9(1): 132-148.

2007

Technical Memorandum #7: Impacts of Climate Change on Cloud Cover in the Puget Sound Region

Alemu, E., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #7: Impacts of Climate Change on Cloud Cover in the Puget Sound Region. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #8: Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources- A Literature Review

Alexander, D., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #8: Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources- A Literature Review. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #1: Literature Review of Research Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning

Alexander, D., R.N. Palmer, and A. Polebitski. 2007. Technical Memorandum #1: Literature Review of Research Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Battin, J., M.W. Wiley, M.H. Ruckelshaus, R.N. Palmer, E. Korb, K.K. Bartz, and H. Imaki. 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(16): 6720–6725.

Growth-climate relations of Lodgepole Pine in the North Cascades National Park, Washington

Case, M.J., and D.L. Peterson. 2007. Growth-climate relations of Lodgepole Pine in the North Cascades National Park, Washington. Northwest Science 81(1):62-75.

HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Washington

Climate Impacts Group 2007. HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Washington. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

The physical science behind climate change

Colman, R., W. Collins, J. Haywood, M. Manning, and P.W. Mote. 2007. The physical science behind climate change. Scientific American 297(2): 64-71.

Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling

Cushman, S.C., D. McKenzie, D.L. Peterson, J.S. Littell, and K.S. McKelvey. 2007. Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-194. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Cross-scale analysis of fire regimes

Falk, D.A., C.M. Miller, D. McKenzie, and A.E. Black. 2007. Cross-scale analysis of fire regimes. Ecosystems 10(5): 809-823, doi 10.1007/s10021-007-9070-7.

Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S.

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2007. Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S.. Water Resources Research 43, W06427, doi:10.1029/2006WR005099.

20th century trends in runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture in the Western U.S

Hamlet, A.F., P.W. Mote, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2007. 20th century trends in runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture in the Western U.S. Journal of Climate 20(8): 1468-1486. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4051.1

Is the world ocean warming? Upper-ocean temperature trends: 1950-2000

Harrison, D.E., and M. Carson. 2007. Is the world ocean warming? Upper-ocean temperature trends: 1950-2000. Journal of Physical Oceanography 37(2): 174-187.

Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife

Independent Science Advisory Board 2007. Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife. Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) Climate Change Report ISAB 2007-2, Portland, OR.

Summary for Policymakers

IPCC 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Contributing author: Mote)

The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State

Kaje, J.H., and D. Huppert. 2007. The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State. Natural Resource Modeling 20(2):321-349.

Climate variability, climate change, and western wildfire with implications for the urban-wildland interface

Keeton, W.S., P.W. Mote, and J.F. Franklin. 2007. Climate variability, climate change, and western wildfire with implications for the urban-wildland interface. pp. 225-253. In A. Troy and R. Kennedy (eds)., Living on the Edge: Economic, Institutional and Management Perspectives on Wildfire Hazard in the Urban Interface. Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources , Vol. 6. Oxford, United Kingdom: Elsevier Sciences JAI Press.

Spatial models for inferring topographic controls on low-severity fire in the eastern Cascade Range of Washington, USA.

Kellogg, L-K.B., D. McKenzie, D.L. Peterson, and A.E. Hessl. 2007. Spatial models for inferring topographic controls on low-severity fire in the eastern Cascade Range of Washington, USA.. Landscape Ecology 23(2):227-240, DOI 10.1007/s10980-007-9188-1.

Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground

Lemke, P., J. Ren, R.B. Alley, I. Allison, J. Carrasco, G. Flato, Y. Fujii, G. Kaser, P.W. Mote, R.H. Thomas, and T. Zhang. 2007. Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Chapter 4 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

The salmon MALBEC project: a North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning

Mantua, N.J., N.G. Taylor, G.T. Ruggerone, K.W. Myers, D. Preikshot, X. Augerot, N.D. Davis, B. Dorner, R. Hilborn, R.M. Peterman, P. Rand, D. Schindler, J. Stanford, R.V. Walker, and C.J. Walters. 2007. The salmon MALBEC project: a North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning. (NPAFC Doc. 1060) School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate change and disturbance regimes in western North America

McKenzie, D., and C.D. Allen. 2007. Climate change and disturbance regimes in western North America. EOS Transactions 88(21): 227.

Mapping fuels at multiple scales: Landscape application of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System

McKenzie, D., C.L. Raymond, J.P. Kellogg, R.A. Norheim, A.G. Andreu, A.C. Bayard, K.E. Kopper, and E Elman. 2007. Mapping fuels at multiple scales: Landscape application of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37: 2421-2437, doi:10.1139/X07-056.

El Niño

Mitchell, T.P., and E. Sarachik. 2007. El Niño. pp 98-103 in Vol.6, 2007 McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology, 10th Edition. New York, New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing.

The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed?

Mote, P.W., and G. Kaser. 2007. The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed?. American Scientist 95(4):318-325.

Technical Memorandum #3: Online Database Functionality and Design for Climate Impacted Data

O'Neill, C., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #3: Online Database Functionality and Design for Climate Impacted Data. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Final Report of the Climate Change Technical Committee

Palmer, R.N. 2007. Final Report of the Climate Change Technical Committee. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #6: Framework for Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning

Palmer, R.N. 2007. Technical Memorandum #6: Framework for Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System

Parrish, J.K., N. Bond, H. Nevins, N.J. Mantua, R. Loeffel, W.T. Peterson, and J.T. Harvey. 2007. Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System. Marine Ecology Progress Series 352: 275-288. Doi: 10.3354/meps07077

Anticipating sea level rise response in Puget Sound

Petersen, A. (Sascha) 2007. Anticipating sea level rise response in Puget Sound. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Technical Memorandum #4: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Meteorological Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control

Polebitski, A., L. Traynham, and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #4: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Meteorological Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #5: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Streamflow Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control

Polebitski, A., L. Traynham, and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #5: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Streamflow Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA

Technical Memorandum #2: Methodology for Downscaling Meteorological Data for Evaluating Climate Change

Polebitski, A., M.W. Wiley, and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #2: Methodology for Downscaling Meteorological Data for Evaluating Climate Change. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and Socioeconomic Information about the Puget Sound Ecosystem

Ruckelshaus, M.H., and M. McClure. (Editors) 2007. Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and Socioeconomic Information about the Puget Sound Ecosystem. Report prepared in cooperation with the Sound Science collaborate team. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmostpheric Administration (NMFS), Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington.

Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest

Salathé, E.P., P.W. Mote, and M.W. Wiley. 2007. Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. International Journal of Climatology 27(12): 1611-1621, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1540.

Water, adaptation, and property rights on the Snake and Klamath Rivers

Slaughter, R., and J.D. Wiener. 2007. Water, adaptation, and property rights on the Snake and Klamath Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 43(2):308-21. DOI: 10.1111 / j.1752-1688.2007.00024.x.

Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments

Snover, A.K., L.C. Whitely Binder, J. Lopez, E. Willmott, J.E. Kay, D. Howell, and J. Simmonds. 2007. Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA.

Assessing regional vulnerability by operationalizing the concept adaptive capacity in the Pacific Northwest

Trask, B. 2007. Assessing regional vulnerability by operationalizing the concept adaptive capacity in the Pacific Northwest. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change

Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden, and P. Zhai. 2007. Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Chapter 3 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Contributing author: Mote)

2006

The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System

Agostini, V.N., R.C. Francis, A.B. Hollowed, S.D. Pierce, C. Wilson, and A.N. Hendrix. 2006. The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 63:2648-2659.

Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States

Andreadis, K.M., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L10403, doi:10.1029/2006GL025711.

ENSO’s effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation

Bond, N., and D.E. Harrison. 2006. ENSO’s effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation. U.S. International Journal of Climatology 26(13):1821-1841.

ENSO's effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation

Bond, N., and D.E. Harrison. 2006. ENSO's effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology 26(13): 1821-1841.

Summertime subtropical sea surface temperature variability

Chiodi, A.M., and D.E. Harrison. 2006. Summertime subtropical sea surface temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters 33(8), L08601, doi:10.1029/2005GL024524, 2006.

Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current

Field, J.C., and R.C. Francis. 2006. Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current. Marine Policy 30:552-562.

Top down modeling and bottom up dynamics: Linking a fisheries based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C., R.C. Francis, and K Aydin. 2006. Top down modeling and bottom up dynamics: Linking a fisheries based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current. Progress in Oceanography 68(2-4): 238-270, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2006.02.010.

Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming and climate variability in the western U.S

Hamlet, A.F. 2006. Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming and climate variability in the western U.S. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Decadal-scale interactions of humans and the environment

Hibbard, K.A., P.J. Crutzen, E.F. Lambin, D.M. Liverman, N.J. Mantua, J.R. McNeill, B. Messerli, and W. Steffen. 2006. Decadal-scale interactions of humans and the environment. In Costanza, R., L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.), Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Spatial and temporal variability in forest growth in the Olympic Mountains, Washington: Sensitivity to climatic variability

Holman, M.L., and D.L. Peterson. 2006. Spatial and temporal variability in forest growth in the Olympic Mountains, Washington: Sensitivity to climatic variability. Canadian Journal of Forest Resources 36:92-104.

Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario

Lee, S.Y., A.F. Hamlet, C.J. Fitzgerald, S.J. Burges, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario. In D. Zimbelman and W.C. Loehlein (eds.), Operating Reservoirs in Changing Conditions, ASCE conference proceedings, Sacramento, CA, August 14-16, 2006, Reston, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers.

Climate impacts to forest ecosystem processes: Douglas-fir growth in northwestern U.S. mountain landscapes and area burned by wildfire in western U.S. ecoprovinces

Littell, J.S. 2006. Climate impacts to forest ecosystem processes: Douglas-fir growth in northwestern U.S. mountain landscapes and area burned by wildfire in western U.S. ecoprovinces. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

A decadal chronology of 20th-century changes in Earth's natural systems

Mantua, N.J. 2006. A decadal chronology of 20th-century changes in Earth's natural systems. In Costanza, R., L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.), Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes

McKenzie, D., A.E. Hessl, and L-K.B. Kellogg. 2006. Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes. Landscape Ecology 21:139-152.

How will climatic change affect air quality in parks and wilderness?

McKenzie, D., S. O'Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. How will climatic change affect air quality in parks and wilderness?. In D. Harmon (ed.), Proceedings of the George Wright Society Annual Meeting Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: The George Wright Society.

Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire

McKenzie, D., S. O'Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire. Ecological Modelling 199:278-288.

Simulating regional haze from wildland fire emissions in the western USA

McKenzie, D., S. O'Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. Simulating regional haze from wildland fire emissions in the western USA. pages 128-129. In M. Price (ed.), Global Change in Mountain Regions, Sapiens Publishing, Duncow, UK.

An approach to designing a National Climate Service

Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, L.C. Whitely Binder, E. Sarachik, P.W. Mote, and N.J. Mantua. 2006. An approach to designing a National Climate Service. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 103(52):19616–19623.

Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W. 2006. Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. Journal of Climate 19(23): 6209-6220.

Energy-relevant Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, and C. Peacock. 2006. Energy-relevant Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared for Portland General Electric by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 19 pp.

Spatial variability in forest growth – climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

Nakawatase, J.M., and D.L. Peterson. 2006. Spatial variability in forest growth – climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Resources 36:77-91.

Climate Change Building Blocks

Palmer, R.N., M.W. Wiley, A. Polebitski, B. Enfield, K. King, C. O'Neill, and L. Traynham. 2006. Climate Change Building Blocks. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

Salathé, E.P. 2006. Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882, 2006.

Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast during 2005: An historical perspective

Schwing, F.B., N.A. Bond, S.J. Bograd, T.P. Mitchell, M.A. Alexander, and N.J. Mantua. 2006. Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast during 2005: An historical perspective. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L22S01, doi:10.1029/2006GL026911.

Using climate forecasts for drought water management

Steinemann, A.C. 2006. Using climate forecasts for drought water management. Journal of Applied Meteorology 45(10): 1353-1361.

Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans

Steinemann, A.C., and L.F.N. Cavalcanti. 2006. Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 132(3):164-174.

Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: the Western Mountain Initiative.

Stephenson, N., D.L. Peterson, D. Fagre, C.D. Allen, D. McKenzie, J.S. Baron, and K. O'Brian. 2006. Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: the Western Mountain Initiative.. Park Science 24:24-29.

Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis

Trites, A.W., A.J. Miller, H.D.G. Maschner, M.A. Alexander, S.J. Bograd, J.A. Calder, A. Capotondi, K.O. Coyle, E. Di Lorenzo, B.P. Finney, E.J. Gregr, C.E. Grosch, S.R. Hare, A. Hunt, J. Jahncke, N.B. Kachel, H.J. Kim, C. Ladd, N.J. Mantua, W. Marzban, W. Maslowski, R. Mendelssohn, D.J. Neilson, S.R. Okkonen, J.E. Overland, K.L. Reedy-Maschner, T.C. Royer, F.B. Schwing, J.X.L. Wang, and A.J. Winship. 2006. Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography 16(1): 46-67.

USACE foundation study on climate variability planning and adaptation

Vaddey, S.V., A.F. Hamlet, and K.D. White. 2006. USACE foundation study on climate variability planning and adaptation. In Proceedings of American Water Resources Association Summer Specialty Conference: Adaptive Management of Water Resources, Missoula, MT, Jun 26-28, 2006, Middleburg, Virginia: American Water Resources Association.

The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning

Voisin, N., A.F. Hamlet, L.P. Graham, D.W. Pierce, T.P. Barnett, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning. Journal of Applied Meteorology 45(5):653-673.

Integrating climate impacts in water resource planning and management

White, K.D., S.V. Vaddey, A.F. Hamlet, S.J. Cohen, D. Neilsen, and W. Taylor. 2006. Integrating climate impacts in water resource planning and management. In M. Davies (ed.) and J.E. Zurfelt, Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Cold Regions Engineering, Current Practices in Cold Regions Engineering, Orono, Maine, July 23-26, 2006, Reston, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineering.

Climate change and watershed planning in Washington State

Whitely Binder, L.C. 2006. Climate change and watershed planning in Washington State. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 42(4):915-926.

Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling

Wiedinmyer, C., B. Quayle, C. Geron, A. Belote, D. McKenzie, X. Zhang, S. O'Neill, and K.K. Wynne. 2006. Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling. Atmospheric Environment 40(19):3419-3432.

2005

Climate, ecology and productivity of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and hake (Merluccius productus)

Agostini, V.N. 2005. Climate, ecology and productivity of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and hake (Merluccius productus). Ph.D. dissertation, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho

Alfaro, E., D. Pierce, A.C. Steinemann, and A. Gershunov. 2005. Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho. Applied Meteorology 44(12):1972-1978.

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J.S. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielsen, C.D. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, and T. Doyle. 2005. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications. Ecological Complexity 2:357–394.

Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington

Case, M.J., and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 2743-2755.

Climate Impacts on Washington's Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture

Casola, J.H., J.E. Kay, A.K. Snover, R.A. Norheim, L.C. Whitely Binder, and Climate Impacts Group. 2005. Climate Impacts on Washington's Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Regeneration and understory response to harvest in subalpine forests of the North Cascade Range, Washington

Elman, E, and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Regeneration and understory response to harvest in subalpine forests of the North Cascade Range, Washington. Journal of Ecosystems and Management 6(1): 33-50.

Atmospheric, climatic and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States

Gedalof, Z.M., D.L. Peterson, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Atmospheric, climatic and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States. Ecological Applications 15(1):154-174.

Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S.

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S.. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6(3):330-336.

Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States

Hamlet, A.F., P.W. Mote, M. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States. Journal of Climate 18(21): 4545-4561.

The role of daily surface forcing in setting the temperature and mixed layer structure of the Southern Ocean

Kamenkovich, I.V. 2005. The role of daily surface forcing in setting the temperature and mixed layer structure of the Southern Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research 101, C07006, doi:10.1029/2004JC002610.

"Agriculture Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Agriculture Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Climate Change Policy Questions"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Change Policy Questions". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Climate Change Primers"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Change Primers". Fact sheets prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Climate Impacts Science Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Impacts Science Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Coasts Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Coasts Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Fish and Shellfish Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Fish and Shellfish Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forestry Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Forestry Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Global Climate Change Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Global Climate Change Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Hydropower Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Hydropower Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"King County Sector Breakout Fact Sheets"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, A.K. Snover, and Climate Impacts Group. 2005. "King County Sector Breakout Fact Sheets". Fact sheets prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Municipal/Industrial Water Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Municipal/Industrial Water Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Regional Climate Change Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Regional Climate Change Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Stormwater/Floods Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Stormwater/Floods Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter

Larkin, N.K., and D.E. Harrison. 2005. Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter. Geophysical Research Letters 32(16), L16705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022860, 2005.

On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies

Larkin, N.K., and D.E. Harrison. 2005. On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters 32(13), L13705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022738, 2005.

Implications of 2005 Climate Change Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Studies

Lettenmaier, D.P., M.W. Wiley, A.F. Hamlet, and R.N. Palmer. 2005. Implications of 2005 Climate Change Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Studies. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Effects of climate variability and change on mountain water resources in the Western U.S

Leung, L.R. 2005. Effects of climate variability and change on mountain water resources in the Western U.S. pp. 355-366. In U.M. Huber, H.K.M. Bugmann, and M.A. Reasoner (eds.), Global Change and Mountain Regions: A State of Knowledge Overview, Springer, Dordrecht.

Hydrologic response to climate variability, climate change, and climate extreme in the U.S.: Climate model evaluation and projections

Leung, L.R., and Y. Qian. 2005. Hydrologic response to climate variability, climate change, and climate extreme in the U.S.: Climate model evaluation and projections. pp. 37-44. In Wagener, T. et al. (eds), Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change - Impact Assessment and Decision Making, IAHS Publication 295.

A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the northwestern U.S.

Littell, J.S., and D.L. Peterson. 2005. A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the northwestern U.S.. Forestry Chronicle 81(3):369-374.

Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems

Mantua, N.J. 2005. Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems. PICES Press 13(1): 12-14.

Wildfire in the West: A look into a greenhouse world

McKenzie, D., and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Wildfire in the West: A look into a greenhouse world. pp. 8-12. In Watershed Management Council Networker, University of Idaho, Boise, ID.

Effects of a warmer climate on stress complexes in forest of western North America.

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Littell. 2005. Effects of a warmer climate on stress complexes in forest of western North America.. EOS Trans. AGU 86(52); Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC32A.

Watershed initiatives in the Skagit River and Tillamook Bay Watersheds: An exploratory analysis of planning, implementation, and integration

Morlock, S.M. 2005. Watershed initiatives in the Skagit River and Tillamook Bay Watersheds: An exploratory analysis of planning, implementation, and integration. M.S. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Declining mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86(1):39-49.

Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America. In K. Elder, B. McGurk, and J. Lea (eds.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 19-22, 2004, Richmond, British Columbia, pp. 15-22, Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, and C. Peacock. 2005. Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest. A report prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document

Mote, P.W., A.K. Snover, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling

Salathé, E.P. 2005. Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling. International Journal of Climatology 25:419-436.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound

Snover, A.K., P.W. Mote, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta)

Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 228(1-2): 167-178.

A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States

Wood, A.W., A. Kumar, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 110, D04105, doi:10.1029/2004JD004508.

2004

A comparison of the incorporation of climate forecasts and other climate information by coastal managers in the Pacific Northwest between 1996 and 2003

Andersen, M.S., E.L. Miles, and D.L. Fluharty. 2004. A comparison of the incorporation of climate forecasts and other climate information by coastal managers in the Pacific Northwest between 1996 and 2003. In Conference Proceedings for The Coastal Society 19th International Conference, Alexandria, Virginia: The Coastal Society.

Proposal to NOAA OGP: CDEP and RISA programs, April 1, 2005-March 31, 2010

Center for Science in the Earth System 2004. Proposal to NOAA OGP: CDEP and RISA programs, April 1, 2005-March 31, 2010. Proposal to the NOAA Office of Global Programs for 2005-2010. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Impact of climate change on U.S. air quality using multi-scale modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ system

Chen, J., J. Avise, J. Vaughan, B. Lamb, C.F. Mass, E.P. Salathé, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, S. O'Neill, S. Ferguson, N. Larkin, and D. McKenzie. 2004. Impact of climate change on U.S. air quality using multi-scale modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ system. In proceedings for Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone, Boston, Massachusetts: American Meteorological Society.

Boundaries of open marine ecosystems: An application to the Pribilof archipelago, southeast Bering Sea

Ciannelli, L., B.W. Robson, R.C. Francis, K Aydin, and R.D. Brodeur. 2004. Boundaries of open marine ecosystems: An application to the Pribilof archipelago, southeast Bering Sea. Ecological Applications 14(3):942-953.

"Forest Biodiversity"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Biodiversity". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forest Change"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Change". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forest Fire and Climate"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Fire and Climate". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forest Growth and Climate Change"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Growth and Climate Change". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forests and Climate Fact Sheet Series"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forests and Climate Fact Sheet Series". Fact sheets prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Impacts of Climate Change on PNW Timber Production"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Impacts of Climate Change on PNW Timber Production". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Overview of Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Climate Impacts Group 2004. Overview of Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Background paper prepared for the West Coast Governors' Climate Change Initiative.

Integrated and cumulative threats to water

Cohen, S.J., R. de Loe, A.F. Hamlet, R. Herrington, L. Mortsch, and D. Shrubsole. 2004. Integrated and cumulative threats to water. Chapter 15 in Threats to Fresh Water Availability in Canada, Environment Canada, NWRI Scientific Assessment Report Series No.3, Burlington, Ontario: National Water Research Institute.

Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations

deYoung, B., R. Harris, J. Alheit, G. Beaugrand, N.J. Mantua, and L. Shannon. 2004. Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations. Progress in Oceanography 60(2-4):143-164.

Application of ecosystem-based fishery management approaches in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C. 2004. Application of ecosystem-based fishery management approaches in the Northern California Current. Ph.D. dissertation, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Columbia River flow and drought since 1750

Gedalof, Z.M., D.L. Peterson, and N.J. Mantua. 2004. Columbia River flow and drought since 1750. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 40(6):1579-1592.

Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest

Hessl, A.E., D. McKenzie, and R. Schellhaas. 2004. Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest. Ecological Applications 14(2): 425-442.

Ecophysiological parameters for Pacific Northwest trees

Hessl, A.E., C Milesi, D.L. Peterson, M. White, and R.E. Keane. 2004. Ecophysiological parameters for Pacific Northwest trees. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-618, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Mechanisms controlling the sensitivity of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to the parameterization of eddy transports in an ocean GCM

Kamenkovich, I.V., and E. Sarachik. 2004. Mechanisms controlling the sensitivity of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to the parameterization of eddy transports in an ocean GCM. Journal of Physical Oceanography 34:1628-1647.

On reducing errors in temperature and salinity in an ocean model forced by restoring boundary conditions

Kamenkovich, I.V., and E. Sarachik. 2004. On reducing errors in temperature and salinity in an ocean model forced by restoring boundary conditions. Journal of Physical Oceanography 34:1856-1869.

Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in two Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations

Lawson, P.W., E.A. Logerwell, N.J. Mantua, R.C. Francis, and V.N. Agostini. 2004. Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in two Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 61:360-373.