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Mote, P.W., J. Casson, A.F. Hamlet, and D.C. Reading. (In press). Sensitivity of Northwest ski areas to warming. To appear in B. McGurk (ed.), Proceedings of the 75th Western Snow Conference, April 16-19, 2007, Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

A high-resolution climate model for the United States Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change

Salathé, E.P., R. Steed, C.F. Mass, and P. Zahn. (In press). A high-resolution climate model for the United States Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change. To appear in Journal of Climate.

In review

The underlying rhythms: Characteristics of Pacific Northwest climate

Mantua, N.J., and P.W. Mote. (In review). The underlying rhythms: Characteristics of Pacific Northwest climate. Chapter 4 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Possible future climate

Mote, P.W. (In review). Possible future climate. Chapter 5 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

2008

Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and E.P. Salathé. 2008. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12: 193-206.

Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, V. Dulière, and E. Jump. 2008. Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle.

2007

HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Washington

Climate Impacts Group 2007. HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Washington. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

2006

Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W. 2006. Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. Journal of Climate 19(23): 6209-6220.

Energy-relevant Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, and C. Peacock. 2006. Energy-relevant Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared for Portland General Electric by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 19 pp.

Climate Change Building Blocks

Palmer, R.N., M.W. Wiley, A. Polebitski, B. Enfield, K. King, C. O'Neill, and L. Traynham. 2006. Climate Change Building Blocks. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

Salathé, E.P. 2006. Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882, 2006.

2005

Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho

Alfaro, E., D. Pierce, A.C. Steinemann, and A. Gershunov. 2005. Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho. Applied Meteorology 44(12):1972-1978.

Climate Impacts on Washington's Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture

Casola, J.H., J.E. Kay, A.K. Snover, R.A. Norheim, L.C. Whitely Binder, and Climate Impacts Group. 2005. Climate Impacts on Washington's Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

"Climate Change Primers"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Change Primers". Fact sheets prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Climate Impacts Science Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Impacts Science Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"King County Sector Breakout Fact Sheets"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, A.K. Snover, and Climate Impacts Group. 2005. "King County Sector Breakout Fact Sheets". Fact sheets prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Regional Climate Change Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Regional Climate Change Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America. In K. Elder, B. McGurk, and J. Lea (eds.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 19-22, 2004, Richmond, British Columbia, pp. 15-22, Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, and C. Peacock. 2005. Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest. A report prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document

Mote, P.W., A.K. Snover, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling

Salathé, E.P. 2005. Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling. International Journal of Climatology 25:419-436.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound

Snover, A.K., P.W. Mote, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta)

Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 228(1-2): 167-178.

2004

Overview of Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Climate Impacts Group 2004. Overview of Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Background paper prepared for the West Coast Governors' Climate Change Initiative.

Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the Western United States

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, W.M. Washington, J. Han, and J.O. Roads. 2004. Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the Western United States. Climatic Change 62:75-113.

Fire and Climatic Variability in the Inland Pacific Northwest: Integrating Science and Management

McKenzie, D., A.E. Hessl, D.L. Peterson, J.K. Agee, J.F. Lehmkuhl, L-K.B. Kellogg, and J. Kernan. 2004. Fire and Climatic Variability in the Inland Pacific Northwest: Integrating Science and Management. Final report to the Joint Fire Science Program on Project #01-1-6-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 44 pp.

Declines in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes

Mote, P.W. 2004. Declines in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes. In B. McGurk (ed.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 20-24, 2003, Scottsdale, Arizona., pp. 77-83, Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

How and why is Northwest climate changing?

Mote, P.W. 2004. How and why is Northwest climate changing?. pp. 11-22 in Peterson, D.L. and J.L. Innes (eds.), Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry in Northwestern North America. General technical report for the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. In F. Wagner (ed.), Proceedings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science Pacific Division 85th Annual Meeting, Ashland, Oregon: American Association for the Advancement of Science Pacific Division.

North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2004. North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Geophysical Research Letters 31, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019440, 2004.

2003

The impact of daily changes in the Pacific North American pattern on the occurrence of extreme weather events

Brown, C.A. 2003. The impact of daily changes in the Pacific North American pattern on the occurrence of extreme weather events. M.S. thesis, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain

Leung, L.R., and Y. Qian. 2003. The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4:1025-1043.

Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part I: Seasonal Statistics

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, and A. Hunt. 2003. Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part I: Seasonal Statistics. Journal of Climate 16:1892-1911.

Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO anomalies

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, and A. Hunt. 2003. Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO anomalies. Journal of Climate 16:1912-1928.

Intercomparison of global reanalyses and regional simulations of cold season water budgets in the western United States

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, J. Han, and J.O. Roads. 2003. Intercomparison of global reanalyses and regional simulations of cold season water budgets in the western United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4(6): 1067-1087.

"We need to get out of the clouds on issue of warming"

Mantua, N.J. 2003. "We need to get out of the clouds on issue of warming". Special commentary written for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Sunday, May 25, 2003.

Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes

Mote, P.W. 2003. Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes. Geophysical Research Letters 30(12) 1601, doi:10.1029/2003GL017258, 2003.

Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century

Mote, P.W. 2003. Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century. Northwest Science 77(4): 271-282.

Twentieth-century fluctuations and trends in temperature, precipitation, and mountain snowpack in the Georgia Basin-Puget Sound region

Mote, P.W. 2003. Twentieth-century fluctuations and trends in temperature, precipitation, and mountain snowpack in the Georgia Basin-Puget Sound region. Canadian Water Resources Journal 28(4): 567-586.

Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin

Salathé, E.P. 2003. Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin. International Journal of Climatology 23(8): 887-901.

Statistical precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor

Widmann, M., C.S. Bretherton, and E.P. Salathé. 2003. Statistical precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor. Journal of Climate 16(5):799-816.

2002

A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and corals

Gedalof, Z.M., N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2002. A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and corals. Geophysical Research Letters 29(24):2204. doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015824.

La Niña impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Mantua, N.J. 2002. La Niña impacts on the Pacific Northwest. pp. 102-114. In M. Glantz (ed), La Niña and Its Impacts: Facts and Speculation. Tokyo, Japan: United Nations University Press. 271pp.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Mantua, N.J. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. pp. 592-594. In M.C. McCracken and J.S. Perry (eds), The Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Volume 1, The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimension of Global Environmental Change. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.

Making the climate connections: Bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program

Mantua, N.J., D. Haidvogal, Y. Kushnir, and N. Bond. 2002. Making the climate connections: Bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program. Oceanography 15(2):75-86.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Mantua, N.J., and S.R. Hare. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 58(1):35-44.

Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change

Mantua, N.J., and P.W. Mote. 2002. Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change. In N. McGinn (ed.), Fisheries in a Changing Climate Symposium 32, pp. 263-272, Bethesda, Maryland: American Fisheries Society.

Causes of climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., and N.J. Mantua. 2002. Causes of climate variability in the Pacific Northwest. The Climate Report 3(2):2-6.

2001

Seasonal patterns of wind induced upwelling/downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea

Bakun, A., and V.N. Agostini. 2001. Seasonal patterns of wind induced upwelling/downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea. Scientia Marina 65(3):243-257.

Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America

Gedalof, Z.M., and D.J. Smith. 2001. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. Geophysical Research Letters 28:1515-1518.

An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts

Hare, S.R., and N.J. Mantua. 2001. An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts. Report of a talk presented at the 20th NE Pacific Pink and Chum Workshop, Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001.

Scientific assessment of climate change: Global and regional scales

Mote, P.W. 2001. Scientific assessment of climate change: Global and regional scales. Preparatory White Paper for Climate and Water Policy Meeting, Skamania, Washington, July 2001. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington. 10pp.

Anthropogenic climate change and snow in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., and A.F. Hamlet. 2001. Anthropogenic climate change and snow in the Pacific Northwest. In K. Elder (ed.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 16-19, 2001, Sun Valley, Idaho, pp. 51-52, Portland, OR: Western Snow Conference.

2000

Spatial distribution of tropospheric ozone in western Washington, USA

Cooper, S.M., and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Spatial distribution of tropospheric ozone in western Washington, USA. Environmental Pollution 107:339-347.

Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Hare, S.R., and N.J. Mantua. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 47(2-4):103-145.

1999

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate forecasting for North America

Mantua, N.J. 1999. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate forecasting for North America. In Maryam Golnaraghi (ed), Climate Risk Solutions 1(1):10-13 (newsletter).

Interdecadal modulation of interannual climate variability

Minobe, S., and N.J. Mantua. 1999. Interdecadal modulation of interannual climate variability. n M. Angle and A. Bychkov (eds), Ecosystem Dynamics in the Eastern and Western Gyres of the Subarctic Pacific, a special issue of Progress in Oceanography 43:163-192.

When science sells: El Niño and the newsprint media

Senkler, J.E. 1999. When science sells: El Niño and the newsprint media. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

1997

A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(6):1069-1079.

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Publications

Topic View: Climate: PNW Climate

In press

Sensitivity of Northwest ski areas to warming

A high-resolution climate model for the United States Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change

In review

The underlying rhythms: Characteristics of Pacific Northwest climate

Possible future climate

2008

Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?

Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest

2007

HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Washington

2006

Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Energy-relevant Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

Climate Change Building Blocks

Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

2005

Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho

Climate Impacts on Washington's Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture

"Climate Change Primers"

"Climate Impacts Science Primer"

"King County Sector Breakout Fact Sheets"

"Regional Climate Change Primer"

Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America

Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document

Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound

Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta)

2004

Overview of Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the Western United States

Fire and Climatic Variability in the Inland Pacific Northwest: Integrating Science and Management

Declines in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes

How and why is Northwest climate changing?

Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

2003

The impact of daily changes in the Pacific North American pattern on the occurrence of extreme weather events

The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain

Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part I: Seasonal Statistics

Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO anomalies

Intercomparison of global reanalyses and regional simulations of cold season water budgets in the western United States

"We need to get out of the clouds on issue of warming"

Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes

Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century

Twentieth-century fluctuations and trends in temperature, precipitation, and mountain snowpack in the Georgia Basin-Puget Sound region

Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin

Statistical precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor

2002

A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and corals

La Niña impacts on the Pacific Northwest

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Making the climate connections: Bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change

Causes of climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

2001

Seasonal patterns of wind induced upwelling/downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea

Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America

An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts

Scientific assessment of climate change: Global and regional scales

Anthropogenic climate change and snow in the Pacific Northwest

2000

Spatial distribution of tropospheric ozone in western Washington, USA

Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

1999

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate forecasting for North America

Interdecadal modulation of interannual climate variability

When science sells: El Niño and the newsprint media

1997

A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production