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Holt, C., and N.J. Mantua. (In review). Defining spring transition: Regional indices for the California Current. Submitted to Marine Ecology Progress Series.

Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production

Mantua, N.J. (In review). Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production. In C.C. Krueger and C.E. Zimmerman (eds.), Sustainability of the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim Sustainable Salmon Fisheries, American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland.

Climate and the Pacific Northwest salmon crisis: A case of discordant harmony

Mantua, N.J., and R.C. Francis. (In review). Climate and the Pacific Northwest salmon crisis: A case of discordant harmony. Chapter 7 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

The salmon MALBEC project: A North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning

Mantua, N.J., N.G. Taylor, G.T. Ruggerone, K.W. Myers, D. Preikshot, X. Augerot, N.D. Davis, B. Dorner, R. Hilborn, R.M. Peterman, P. Rand, D. Schindler, J. Stanford, R.V. Walker, and C.J. Walters. (In review). The salmon MALBEC project: A North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning. Submitted to Proceedings of the NPAFC BASIS Symposium.

2009

Preparing for climate change impacts to state-owned aquatic lands: A climate change adaptation strategy for the Washington Department of Natural Resources Aquatic Resources Program

Fredrickson, A.L. 2009. Preparing for climate change impacts to state-owned aquatic lands: A climate change adaptation strategy for the Washington Department of Natural Resources Aquatic Resources Program. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Impacts of climate change on key aspects of freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State

Mantua, N.J., I. Tohver, and A.F. Hamlet. 2009. Impacts of climate change on key aspects of freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State. Chapter 6 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

2008

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

Crozier, L.G., A.P. Hendry, P.W. Lawson, T.P. Quinn, N.J. Mantua, J. Battin, R.G. Shaw, and R.B. Huey. 2008. Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon. Evolutionary Applications 1(2): 252–270, doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00033.x.

Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon

Crozier, L.G., R.W. Zabel, and A.F. Hamlet. 2008. Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Global Change Biology 14(2): 236–249, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01497.x.

Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, B.M. Hickey, and V.L. Trainer. 2008. Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events. Harmful Algae, doi:10.1016/j.hal.2008.10.003.

Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.P. Kellogg, and J.A. Newton. 2008. Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales. Limnology and Oceanography 53(5): 1746-1758.

A descriptive analysis of temporal and spatial patterns of variability in Puget Sound oceanographic properties

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.A. Newton, M. Kawase, M.J. Warner, and J.P. Kellogg. 2008. A descriptive analysis of temporal and spatial patterns of variability in Puget Sound oceanographic properties. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2008.09.016.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Moore, S.K., V.L. Trainer, N.J. Mantua, D. Parker, E.A. Laws, L.C. Backer, and L.E. Fleming. 2008. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health. Environmental Health 7(Suppl 2): S4, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S4.

Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific Salmon

Schindler, D., X. Augerot, E. Fleishman, N.J. Mantua, B. Riddell, M.H. Ruckelshaus, J. Seeb, and M. Webster. 2008. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific Salmon. Fisheries 33(10):502-506.

2007

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Battin, J., M.W. Wiley, M.H. Ruckelshaus, R.N. Palmer, E. Korb, K.K. Bartz, and H. Imaki. 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(16): 6720–6725.

Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife

Independent Science Advisory Board 2007. Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife. Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) Climate Change Report ISAB 2007-2, Portland, OR.

The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State

Kaje, J.H., and D.D. Huppert. 2007. The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State. Natural Resource Modeling 20(2):321-349.

The salmon MALBEC project: a North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning

Mantua, N.J., N.G. Taylor, G.T. Ruggerone, K.W. Myers, D. Preikshot, X. Augerot, N.D. Davis, B. Dorner, R. Hilborn, R.M. Peterman, P. Rand, D. Schindler, J. Stanford, R.V. Walker, and C.J. Walters. 2007. The salmon MALBEC project: a North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning. (NPAFC Doc. 1060) School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System

Parrish, J.K., N. Bond, H. Nevins, N.J. Mantua, R. Loeffel, W.T. Peterson, and J.T. Harvey. 2007. Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System. Marine Ecology Progress Series 352: 275-288. Doi: 10.3354/meps07077

Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and Socioeconomic Information about the Puget Sound Ecosystem

Ruckelshaus, M.H., and M. McClure. (Editors) 2007. Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and Socioeconomic Information about the Puget Sound Ecosystem. Report prepared in cooperation with the Sound Science collaborate team. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmostpheric Administration (NMFS), Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington.

2006

The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System

Agostini, V.N., R.C. Francis, A.B. Hollowed, S.D. Pierce, C. Wilson, and A.N. Hendrix. 2006. The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 63:2648-2659.

Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current

Field, J.C., and R.C. Francis. 2006. Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current. Marine Policy 30:552-562.

Top down modeling and bottom up dynamics: Linking a fisheries based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C., R.C. Francis, and K Aydin. 2006. Top down modeling and bottom up dynamics: Linking a fisheries based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current. Progress in Oceanography 68(2-4): 238-270, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2006.02.010.

Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast during 2005: An historical perspective

Schwing, F.B., N.A. Bond, S.J. Bograd, T.P. Mitchell, M.A. Alexander, and N.J. Mantua. 2006. Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast during 2005: An historical perspective. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L22S01, doi:10.1029/2006GL026911.

Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis

Trites, A.W., A.J. Miller, H.D.G. Maschner, M.A. Alexander, S.J. Bograd, J.A. Calder, A. Capotondi, K.O. Coyle, E. Di Lorenzo, B.P. Finney, E.J. Gregr, C.E. Grosch, S.R. Hare, A. Hunt, J. Jahncke, N.B. Kachel, H.J. Kim, C. Ladd, N.J. Mantua, W. Marzban, W. Maslowski, R. Mendelssohn, D.J. Neilson, S.R. Okkonen, J.E. Overland, K.L. Reedy-Maschner, T.C. Royer, F.B. Schwing, J.X.L. Wang, and A.J. Winship. 2006. Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography 16(1): 46-67.

2005

Climate, ecology and productivity of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and hake (Merluccius productus)

Agostini, V.N. 2005. Climate, ecology and productivity of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and hake (Merluccius productus). Ph.D. dissertation, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Fish and Shellfish Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Fish and Shellfish Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems

Mantua, N.J. 2005. Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems. PICES Press 13(1): 12-14.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document

Mote, P.W., A.K. Snover, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound

Snover, A.K., P.W. Mote, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta)

Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 228(1-2): 167-178.

2004

Boundaries of open marine ecosystems: An application to the Pribilof archipelago, southeast Bering Sea

Ciannelli, L., B.W. Robson, R.C. Francis, K Aydin, and R.D. Brodeur. 2004. Boundaries of open marine ecosystems: An application to the Pribilof archipelago, southeast Bering Sea. Ecological Applications 14(3):942-953.

Application of ecosystem-based fishery management approaches in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C. 2004. Application of ecosystem-based fishery management approaches in the Northern California Current. Ph.D. dissertation, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in two Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations

Lawson, P.W., E.A. Logerwell, N.J. Mantua, R.C. Francis, and V.N. Agostini. 2004. Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in two Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 61:360-373.

Methods for detecting regime shifts in large marine ecosystems: A review with approaches applied to North Pacific data

Mantua, N.J. 2004. Methods for detecting regime shifts in large marine ecosystems: A review with approaches applied to North Pacific data. Progress in Oceanography 60(2-4):165-182.

Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: Finding our way through the entangled bank

Mantua, N.J., and R.C. Francis. 2004. Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: Finding our way through the entangled bank. pp. 127-140, in E.E. Knudsen and D. MacDonald (eds), Fish in our Future? Perspectives on Fisheries Sustainability. A special publication of the American Fisheries Society.

North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2004. North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Geophysical Research Letters 31, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019440, 2004.

2003

Sources of climate variability in river ecosystems

Edmonds, R.L., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2003. Sources of climate variability in river ecosystems. Chapter 2 in R.C. Wissmar and P.A. Bisson (eds), Strategies for Restoring River Ecosystems: Sources of Variability and Uncertainty in Natural and Managed Systems. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland. 276pp.

A web of small tensions

Climatic influences on salmon populations in the Northeast Pacific

Francis, R.C., and N.J. Mantua. 2003. Climatic influences on salmon populations in the Northeast Pacific. pp. 37-67. In A.D. MacCall and T.C. Wainwright (eds.). Assessing Extinction Risk for West Coast Salmon. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memo, NMFS-NWFSC-56, 198 pp.

Climate and fisheries in the Pacific Northwest: Historical perspectives from Geoducks and early explorers

Strom, A. 2003. Climate and fisheries in the Pacific Northwest: Historical perspectives from Geoducks and early explorers. M. Sc. Thesis, School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Physical forcing and the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific: simulations with ENSO-scale and global warming climate drivers

Watters, G.M., R.J. Olson, and R.C. Francis. 2003. Physical forcing and the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific: simulations with ENSO-scale and global warming climate drivers. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 60(9):1161-1175

2002

“Ocean triads” in the Mediterranean Sea: Physical mechanisms potentially structuring reproductive habitat suitability (with example application to European anchovy)

Agostini, V.N., and A. Bakun. 2002. “Ocean triads” in the Mediterranean Sea: Physical mechanisms potentially structuring reproductive habitat suitability (with example application to European anchovy). Fisheries Oceanography 11(3):129.

Climate change and fisheries management in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C., and R.C. Francis. 2002. Climate change and fisheries management in the Northern California Current. In N. McGinn (ed.), Fisheries in a Changing Climate Symposium 32, pp. 245-262, Bethesda, Maryland: American Fisheries Society.

Some thoughts on sustainability and marine conservation

Francis, R.C. 2002. Some thoughts on sustainability and marine conservation. Fisheries 27(1): 18-22.

Making the climate connections: Bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program

Mantua, N.J., D. Haidvogal, Y. Kushnir, and N. Bond. 2002. Making the climate connections: Bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program. Oceanography 15(2):75-86.

Global climate change and marine policy: Planning for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability

Miles, E.L. 2002. Global climate change and marine policy: Planning for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In D.M. Johnston and A. Sirivivatnanon (eds.), Ocean Governance and Sustainable Development in the Pacific Region, SEAPOL Inter-Regional Conference, March 21-23, 2001. Bangkok, Thailand: Southeast Asian Progr. On Ocean Law, Policy, and Mangmt.

Coastal upwelling in a warming future

Mote, P.W., and N.J. Mantua. 2002. Coastal upwelling in a warming future. Geophysical Research Letters 29(23), 2138 doi: 10.1029/2002GL016086.

2001

Seasonal patterns of wind induced upwelling/downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea

Bakun, A., and V.N. Agostini. 2001. Seasonal patterns of wind induced upwelling/downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea. Scientia Marina 65(3):243-257.

Towards a fisheries ecosystem plan for the Northern California Current

Field, J.C., R.C. Francis, and A. Strom. 2001. Towards a fisheries ecosystem plan for the Northern California Current. CalCOFI Report 42: 74-87.

Historical approaches to the northern California Current ecosystem

Francis, R.C., J.C. Field, D. Holmgren, and A. Strom. 2001. Historical approaches to the northern California Current ecosystem. pp. 123-140 in Holm, P., T.D. Smith, and D. Starkey (eds.), The Exploited Seas: New Directions for Marine Environmental History, Research in Maritime History monograph #21. Saint Johns, Newfoundland: Memorial University of Newfoundland.

An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts

Hare, S.R., and N.J. Mantua. 2001. An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts. Report of a talk presented at the 20th NE Pacific Pink and Chum Workshop, Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001.

The possible effects and management implications of climate variability/change on pinniped-salmonid interactions at low population levels of salmonids

Morimoto, G.E. 2001. The possible effects and management implications of climate variability/change on pinniped-salmonid interactions at low population levels of salmonids. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

2000

Report 2000: Western Alaska Salmon Disaster

Alexander, V., G. Busch, M. Dahlberg, B. Fadely, D. Flannagan, H. Geiger, J. Helle, R. Hilborn, W. Hines, G. Knapp, N.J. Mantua, K. Myers, J. Passer, D. Rogers, G. Ruggerone, P. Stabeno, and R. Wilmot. 2000. Report 2000: Western Alaska Salmon Disaster. Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin.

Trends in Coho marine survival in relation to the regime concept

Beamish, R., D. Noakes, G. MacFarlance, W.D. Pinnix, R. Sweeting, J. King, and M. Folkes. 2000. Trends in Coho marine survival in relation to the regime concept. Fisheries Oceanography 9(1):114-119.

Characterization and Assessment of Economic Systems in the Interior Columbia Basin: Fisheries

Fluharty, D.L. 2000. Characterization and Assessment of Economic Systems in the Interior Columbia Basin: Fisheries. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-451, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Hare, S.R., and N.J. Mantua. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 47(2-4):103-145.

Ocean conditions and Columbia River salmon

Mantua, N.J. 2000. Ocean conditions and Columbia River salmon. Written testimony provided for the House Subcommittee on Power and Water hearing, Pasco, Washington, April 27, 2000. (unpublished manuscript)

1999

Inverse production regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific salmon

Hare, S.R., N.J. Mantua, and R.C. Francis. 1999. Inverse production regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific salmon. Fisheries 21(1):6-14.

An exploratory look at Vibrio Parahaemolyticus and PSP in Washington State

Mantua, N.J. 1999. An exploratory look at Vibrio Parahaemolyticus and PSP in Washington State. In Terry Nosho (ed), Proceedings of the 9th Conference for Shellfish Growers, March 16, 1999, Olympia, Washington.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate forecasting for North America

Mantua, N.J. 1999. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate forecasting for North America. In Maryam Golnaraghi (ed), Climate Risk Solutions 1(1):10-13 (newsletter).

Marine survival of Puget Sound coho salmon: Deciphering the climate signal

Pinnix, W.D. 1999. Marine survival of Puget Sound coho salmon: Deciphering the climate signal. MS thesis, School of Fisheries Science, University of Washington, Seattle.

1998

Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific

Francis, R.C., S.R. Hare, A.B. Hollowed, and W.S. Wooster. 1998. Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Fisheries Oceanography 7(1):1-21.

Value of Forecasting Interannual Recruitment Variation for Managing Washington State's Salmon Fisheries

Kaje, J.H. 1998. Value of Forecasting Interannual Recruitment Variation for Managing Washington State's Salmon Fisheries. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Potential consequences of global warming for the Northwestern US: Water resources and marine ecosystems

Mantua, N.J. 1998. Potential consequences of global warming for the Northwestern US: Water resources and marine ecosystems. Extended abstract for a joint lecture with Professor Dennis Lettenmaier for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), May 19, 1998.

1997

Regime scale climate forcing of salmon populations in the Northwest Pacific - Some new thoughts and findings

Francis, R.C., and S.R. Hare. 1997. Regime scale climate forcing of salmon populations in the Northwest Pacific - Some new thoughts and findings. pp.113-128. In R.L. Emmett and M.H. Schiewe (eds.), Estuarine and Ocean Survival of Northeastern Pacific Salmon.U.S> Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memo, NMFS-NWFSC-29, 313 pp.

A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(6):1069-1079.